Real Estate Industry in Poland – 2025 Overview
Poland’s economy remains one of the strongest in Central & Eastern Europe, with GDP growth projected at 3.4% in 2025(1)(2). Inflation has been easing, suggesting the possibility of interest‐rate cuts that would boost real estate demand. Unemployment is at historic lows, supporting domestic consumption and housing demand. In fact, 2024 was a particularly dynamic year – commercial real estate investment volumes surged (≈+120–136% YoY) to roughly €4.8–5.0 billion(2)(3). Poland now ranks highly in investor surveys and remains the largest CEE market, attracting both foreign capital and an emerging pool of domestic institutional investors.
Table: 2024 CRE Investment by Sector in Poland(3)(3)
| Sector | Investment (EUR, 2024) | Market Share |
|---|---|---|
| Office | ~1.65 bn | 34.4% |
| Retail (Shopping Centres) | ~1.63 bn | 33.9% |
| Industrial & Logistics | ~1.25 bn | 26.0% |
| Living (PRS, Hotels, etc.) | ~0.27 bn | 5.7% |
Sources: Savills/PolandWeekly(3)(3) (based on 2024 volumes).
Investment Market and Opportunities
Investment activity remains robust in 2025. After a “rebound” in 2024, Poland’s real estate investment market “will maintain its growth momentum”(1). Major transactions spread across all sectors – offices, retail and logistics each accounted for roughly one-third of the 2024 volume(3). For example, Warsaw office prime yields held around 6.0% (with regional office yields ~7.25–7.50%)(3), while top shopping centers yielded ~6.25–6.50% and retail parks ~7–8%(3). Industrial/logistics prime yields stabilized near 6.25–6.50%(3), reflecting continued demand for e‑commerce and nearshoring space. Yields on emerging asset classes remain slightly higher – ~6.0% for modern student housing and ~5.5% for Build-to-Rent projects(3).
Key investor opportunities include the Residential/PRS sector and Logistics. Poland faces a large housing deficit(1), so purpose-built rental (PRST/BtR) projects are rapidly expanding. Institutional interest is growing; though PRS still represents <1% of rental stock(2), the first Polish REIT regime (planned for 2025) is expected to channel more capital into rental housing(4)(4). Logistics land remains in high demand (driven by e‑commerce and nearshoring trends) even as speculative supply is the lowest in years(2). Consumer staples retail (especially retail parks and mixed-use centers) has also attracted investors adapting to changing retail patterns(1)(3).
Residential Sector
Poland’s housing market shows moderating price growth. After double-digit rises in prior years, annual home prices (in key cities) are now stabilizing. For example, in Q1 2025 the average price of an existing apartment was PLN 16,459/sq.m in Warsaw (≈€4,253), up ~8.1% YoY, while in Kraków it was PLN 15,099 (+10.6% YoY)(5)(5). (See Table below.) New-build prices are rising more modestly (e.g. +3.1% YoY in Warsaw, +6–7% in most cities)(5)(5). Demand is broadly stable but tempered by high mortgage rates. Developers sold ≈9,000 apartments in Q1 2025 across the six largest markets (–6% QoQ), even as new supply hit a record (≈59,000 units on offer)(6). The government has announced a new “Key to the Apartment” scheme to aid affordable housing, potentially easing access for average-income buyers(2).
Table: Average Apartment Prices in Major Cities (Q1 2025)(5)(5)
| City | Existing Homes (PLN/sq.m) | YoY Change | New Homes (PLN/sq.m) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw | 16,459 (≈€4,253) | +8.1%(5) | 16,383 (≈€4,233) | +3.1%(5) |
| Kraków | 15,099 (≈€3,901) | +10.6%(5) | 15,686 (≈€4,053) | +6.6%(5) |
| Wrocław | 12,675 (≈€3,275) | +9.3%(5) | 14,257 (≈€3,684) | +11.1%(5) |
| Tricity (Gdańsk/Gdynia) | 12,279/11,544 (≈€3,173/2,983) | +0.3% / +8.2%(5) | 13,240 / 12,907 (≈€3,421/3,335) | +6.9% / +7.8%(5) |
| Poznań | 10,831 (≈€2,799) | +6.1%(5) | 12,328 (≈€3,185) | +5.3%(5) |
| Łódź | 7,799 (≈€2,015) | +4.1%(5) | 9,781 (≈€2,527) | +0.3%(5) |
Data: NBP via GlobalPropertyGuide(5)(5).
Rental housing (both private leases and institutional PRS) is growing quickly on this base of demand. Build-to-Rent schemes are accelerating in major cities. According to Knight Frank, Poland’s BtR pipeline is “developing dynamically” to address the deficit(7). Indeed, more conversions of office and retail assets into rental apartments are being explored(2). On yields: new mass-market housing or BtR developments can expect net yields around 5–6% (Savills cites ~5.5% for BtR on residential sites)(3).
Office Sector
The office market is in a mild correction phase. New supply has slowed to a trickle – for instance, only ~8,000 sqm of new Class-A offices delivered in Q1 2025 across Poland’s largest cities(8). In 2025 overall, new office completions are forecast to match 2024’s levels(2). Against this limited supply, vacancy rates have crept up, giving tenants more negotiation power(1). Tenants are increasingly demanding high-quality, environmentally certified space in prime locations (e.g. central Warsaw), leading to a bifurcated market. Indeed, Poland’s biggest city remains the focus: Warsaw prime office yields are ~6.0%(3), while in regional hubs yields are typically 125–150 basis points higher(3).
Leasing demand is gradually recovering. Companies are emphasizing return-to-office plans and flexible co-working options(2). The repurposing of obsolete office buildings is also notable (e.g. conversions to student housing)(4). Net office absorption is small but positive, and headline rents have largely stabilized(2). Overall, Warsaw remains the focal point for deals (modern stock and “distressed” legacy assets are changing hands), and rents in the very best buildings in Warsaw could edge upward modestly(2)(4).
Industrial & Logistics Sector
Demand for warehouse/logistics space remains strong in 2025, even as new speculative supply has slowed dramatically(2)(8). Poland’s industrial vacancy is moderate (around 7–8%), reflecting tight fundamentals(2). In Q1 2025, gross leasing hit 1.11 million sqm (+16% YoY)(8), though a high share was driven by renewals. Approximately 1.37 million sqm is under construction (the lowest since 2017)(8). Key drivers include continued growth in e-commerce, manufacturing nearshoring, and infrastructure projects. Headline rents are broadly flat, but effective rents have eased slightly due to tenant incentives(8). Prime industrial yields remain around 6.25–6.50%(3).
Poland’s strongest warehouse market is still the Warsaw region, but other corridors (e.g. Silesia, Poznań) are gaining share. Urban logistics (last-mile) remains a hot theme, albeit hampered by a shortage of suitable infill land and longer permitting times(2). Tenants now have more bargaining power, especially for large blocks in core locations(1). Overall, the industrial sector is seen as resilient and a top investment target; Savills notes 2024 saw ~€1.26bn in warehouse deals (+27% YoY)(3).
Retail Sector
The Polish retail property sector is evolving. Modern retail stock continues to expand (Q1 2025 saw ~47,000 sqm of new GLA delivered)(8), with a large pipeline (~515,000 sqm, predominantly retail parks)(8). Vacancy in the top agglomerations is low (~3.7%)(4), supported by a rebound in retail sales (+2.7% YoY)(4). However, consumer behavior is shifting: e‑commerce, hybrid shopping, and convenience formats are increasingly important(2). Retail parks and mixed-use schemes remain dominant in new supply; major shopping centre operators are adapting by adding entertainment or services.
Investors have focused on the top-tier assets. Three large shopping centers (Silesia SC, Magnolia Park, etc.) drove over €1 billion of 2024 deals(3). Prime shopping center yields are ~6.25–6.50%(3), while retail park yields range ~7–8%(3). Market participants note that retail is polarizing: health-of-market depends on strong locators and consumer sentiment, which is slowly improving(1). Nonetheless, local trend suggests suburban malls or those with dominant anchors perform best, and small convenience centers and parks continue to grow in smaller towns(4).
Hospitality Sector
Poland’s hotel sector is on a firm recovery path. Business and leisure travel have largely returned to 2019 levels. By 2024, hotel occupancy in Warsaw and other cities was up ~3.0% YoY, with foreign tourist arrivals +7% YoY(2). New hotel supply (especially upper-midscale and upscale brands) is coming online, as developers seize the stronger demand. However, the sector faces challenges: labor shortages and rising operational costs are squeezing margins(1).
Investment interest in hospitality is rising. Polish transactions rose ~82% YoY in early 2025(8), signaling renewed confidence. Still, hotels remain a smaller slice of the market: Savills reports 2024 hotel/students/BTR deals totaled only ~€141 million (≈3% of volume), with prime hotel yields around 6.5–7.5% depending on location and brand(3). Student housing (PBSA) is a bright spot: prime PBSA yields ≈6.0%(3) as education demand and conversions of office blocks help fill a supply gap.
Market Pricing & Yields
Overall pricing is stable or modestly rising in 2025. Listed prices for apartments in major cities have plateaued or slightly increased (see table above)(5)(6). On the capital side, prime yields remain near 5–7% for core assets. Key yield benchmarks from Savills’ 2024 survey(3) include:
Offices (Warsaw CBD): ~6.00% (prime)(3)
Offices (Regional cities): ~7.25–7.50% (125–150bp margin)(3)
Retail (prime shopping centers): ~6.25–6.50%(3)
Retail (parks/convenience): ~7.0–8.0%(3)
Logistics (core): ~6.25–6.50%(3)
Student Housing: ~6.00%(3)
Build-to-Rent (residential zoned): ~5.50%(3)
Despite tight lending markets, these yields imply yields spreads that still attract long-term investors. Bids for quality assets remain strong, especially where financing costs have stabilized.
Major Developers & Investors
Polish real estate development is dominated by a few large groups. In residential, Dom Development is the market leader (having delivered ~49,000 homes since inception)(9). Other prominent homebuilders include Murapol, Atal, Archicom, Develia and J.W. Construction (many of which are publicly traded)(10)(9). In the commercial sector, major developers and owners include Echo Investment, Ghelamco, Skanska (Poland), Cavatina and HB Reavis, among others. International funds and REITs (existing FIZ fund vehicles) have also been active – for example, recent large deals involved global players like Ares Management and South African REITs(3).
In 2025, domestic capital appears more influential. Polish institutional and pension funds, along with sovereign-backed vehicles, have stepped up acquisitions (≈10% of 2024 volume)(3). Cross-border flows remain significant: CEE neighbors (e.g. Hungarian, Czech investors) and returning institutional buyers see Polish commercial real estate as attractive. Key first-time entrants in 2024 included Xior and others in the living sector, illustrating rising interest in niche assets.
Regulatory & Policy Environment
Several regulatory changes will shape the 2025 market. In housing, a new “Key to the Apartment” program was announced to boost affordable lending, and tougher buyer-protection laws (the New Developer Act) took effect(2). A broader Supply Act is being drafted to unlock more land for housing, including releasing certain city-site farmland for development(2). On planning, a landmark Spatial Planning and Development Act requires all municipalities to adopt binding master plans by mid-2026(4), replacing outdated local zoning (intended to speed up permit processes).
Tax changes are also noteworthy. As of Jan 2025, a revised Real Estate Tax law was implemented, with a new definition of taxable buildings/structures that may widen the tax base(2). Sustainability regulation is accelerating: new builds must meet eco-design standards, and EU decarbonization targets (Green Deal) are driving energy efficiency retrofits (e.g. solar PV integration in logistics and retail parks(4)). Financially, policymakers have signaled eventual interest-rate relief later in 2025, which (along with EU reconstruction funds) should bolster investment. Indeed, Poland has begun to receive large EU budget transfers (≈€9.4 bn in late 2024, ~1.3% of GDP) under its National Reconstruction Plan(4).
Finally, a proposed Polish REIT law (Spółka Inwestująca w Najem Nieruchomości, SINN) is under discussion(4)(4). This regime (likely effective 2025/26) would allow joint-stock companies to operate as institutional rental vehicles. Early drafts suggest SINNs can invest in commercial real estate and institutional rental housing (but not typical homebuilders’ condo projects), with safeguards against abuse(4). Market participants view REITs as a potential catalyst: by formalizing the rental asset class, they could improve liquidity, attract local pension capital, and advance Poland’s PRS sector(4).
Key Takeaways
Solid Growth: Poland’s economy (~3–3.5% GDP growth) and financing conditions underpin a strong property market(1)(11). Inflation is moderating, setting the stage for lower rates and renewed activity.
Investment Momentum: 2024 set records for transaction volume (~€4.8–5.0bn) with broad sector participation(3)(2). Core/core+ strategies dominate, but value-add/development deals (especially PRS and logistics) are rising.
Sector Dynamics: Office and retail are polarizing by location and quality. Industrial logistics remains robust (vacancy ~7–8%). Residential markets are stable with slower price growth, yet a pronounced supply gap persists(1)(6). Hotel occupancy is back to pre-Covid levels with growing investor interest.
Yields & Pricing: Prime yields are roughly 6–7% for core office/retail and ~6.5% for top hotels; logistics yields are similar (~6.25–6.5%)(3)(3). BtR and student housing yield ~5.5–6.0%(3). Residential sale prices are up moderately in 2025, but affordability remains challenged.
Developers & Capital: Leading residential developers like Dom Development (largest) and other listed builders dominate supply(9)(10). Echo Investment, Skanska, HB Reavis and others drive commercial projects. Domestic buyers (funds, public entities) are increasingly active alongside foreign investors.
Regulation & ESG: New laws (planning reform, housing incentives, tighter building standards) aim to improve transparency and increase supply(2)(4). Environmental regulation is a growing force: assets lacking energy-efficiency may face value pressure, while green-certified buildings attract premium interest(4).